Ahhh. The Derby. Like Chirstmas Day for me. Last year I did a series of Facebook & Twitter updates relaying my observations of the field. I thought it might have been a bit annoying, but as it turns out I received a lot of feedback from people who are casual fans saying it was really helpful and they watched my stream throughout the day for updates. Lately, a lot of friends have been pinging me asking if I was going to do it. The answer is yes, so here goes.
First, a couple caveats.
1) My approach to handicapping is one that focuses on payouts rather than picking winners. Being right in any particular race isn’t as important to me as what the ROI is on my bankroll at the end of the day. As a result, I tend to look for ways to beat the favorites and lean towards longer odds horses. So, if being right and showing your friends that you picked the Derby winner is important to your self esteem, my picks aren’t for you. You should take the favorites and collect your 2-1 or whatever the chalk pays.
2) Another consequence of this approach is I have very little emotional investment or attachment in any of the horses. For my approach to work, I need to evaluate each horse with respect to the dividend that is being offered on that horse. When I say I don’t like a particular horse, its nothing personal, the horse may be a very good horse, its just that when I compare the horses’ return versus his specific attributes, betting on him today, in this race with its specific circumstances is not attractive to me from a risk reward perspective. A lot of true racing fans find this attitude a little annoying.
With all that said, if I say I don’t like a particular horse that you like or have an attachment for, save the comments calling me crazy or telling me I don’t know what I am talking about. Save it. Its wasted breath. Use the info or don’t. I’ve done well over the past 20+ years handicapping and Im not asking you to put your money up. If you’re cool with that diatribe, then lets go down the Derby rabbit hole.
The Derby is a one of a kind event in American horseracing. It’s essentially a race for gawky teenage horses all trying the classic distance for the first time in a 20 horse field for the delight of 150,000 screaming fans. For most of these horses, they will never see a crowd of this size ever again, nor will they see a field of 20 horses again. Most races in the US only allow up to 12-13 entrants.
The field size is one of the biggest factors in the Derby because of the traffic issues it creates. At any point in the race, you could have horses going at varying speeds causing problems for other horses because it affects their preferred running style. The situation for many of the horses can be exactly like the frustration a driver of high performance sports car feels on a crowded highway when he is sitting behind a minivan going 55 mph and boxed in by an old pickup truck. The expensive sports car is clearly the best car on the road, but it can only go as fast as the traffic situation allows. God forbid, but if the minivan all of sudden decides it doesn’t want to drive anymore, then you have an accident. This is the situation at the Derby in a nutshell. So first principal: post position to some horses is everything.
I love synthetic tracks generally, but the Derby is run on a traditional dirt surface. So, if you don’t have experience on a dirt surface, the horse is usually a throw out for the win. This doesn’t mean the horse can’t hit the board. This generally means I throw out a lot of the California horses when considering potential winners. We just haven’t yet seen a horse with all synthetic experience transfer his form to the Churchill dirt track. Yes, last year Pioneer of the Nile (2nd) came close. And, yes synthetic tracks have only been in full swing in Cali for about 3-4 years, so it is a small sample. But for now, it seems like a prudent reason for elimination. I am open to changing my opinion on this when I see a reason to.
If you take the time to look at the actual past performances and don’t just use tout sheets, you will notice many of the California horses do have at least 1 real dirt experience. For the most part, this experience is at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas. I’m not sure why all the California horsemen are choosing to ship to Oaklawn to get their horses dirt experience (many potential reasons: similarity of surface to California tracks, schedule, etc), but they are. Despite the fact that I used to believe that Oaklawn form translated well to Churchill, I’m still going to downgrade the California horses with dirt experience only at Oaklawn. I don’t have any special knowledge or anything, but I don’t think it’s just coincidence that California horsemen are taking the Oaklawn route. I think there is some aspect of Oaklawn that may be very similar to Santa Anita that makes them want to use it as a testing ground that gives insight to how their horses perform on traditional dirt without taking the outright risk of shipping to Gulfstream or another conventional east coast dirt track where their triple crown hopes could go up in smoke.
At the end of the day, the Derby is a lot like the NCAA Basketball Tourney. Just get to the dance. You never know. Look at Butler this year. If you get to the starting gate at the Derby you’ve at least got a non-zero chance to win if something freaky happens and a good shot to pick up a nice check even with a third or fourth place finish. As a result, many trainers just want to get their horses there in one piece and in the gate.
Other factors I consider when handicapping the Derby:
A. Grade 1 stakes experience: These are the best races run worldwide. The principal is really simple. Grade 1 horses usually win Grade 1 races! The more Grade 1 races under the belt the more I generally like the horse. If he has won these races even better. This pretty much applies to any race I handicap.
B. Jockey/Trainer prior experience: Guys who have been to the big show tend to be better bets. Of course you have Mine that Bird last year, a first time trainer, but he had an experienced Churchill jockey – Calvin Bo-rail – who was well acquainted with the nuances of running at Churchill Downs.
C. Prior experience at Churchill: I favor horses that are familiar with the track. If they have won a race here, even better.
D. Number of Trainer Entries: Lately, people like Zito and Pletcher have been showing up with 4 and 5 entries. Yes, I know Lukas won when he saddled 5 many years ago, but this is just a personal preference. I believe getting a horse through preps, managing owners and juggling jockeys is a tough thing. I don’t believe attention scales well. So, I tend to discount the trainers with multiple entries because I don’t believe they are capable of managing all of the possibly conflicting priorities of each horse and its owner. I may consider these horses for an in the money appearance.
E. Speed Figures: For those of you who know me and have either talked racing with me or actually been to the track with me, you know that I have a heavy disdain for speed figures. I generally think the math behind them is elegant, correct and wrong. There is an exception, when it comes to three year old horses, I think speed figures can be a loose guide, roadmap that give you some indication as to how they are developing and some hint as to whether a horse is sitting on a big race or not. I only have a loose methodology and most of it is based on judgment and feel I’ve developed playing for two decades. An example speed figure pattern I tend to favor is one I call paired figures. If you look at the last four races of a three year old and you see speed scores of 98,98,85,84, then it usually means the horse is ready to go forward and run a big race. Nothing is 100%, but this pattern can unearth good horses at prices from time to time. In the current field, if you look at Ice Box, prior to running in the Florida Derby, his last four races yielded speed figures of 86,89,68,and 62. When he ran the Florida Derby he ran 99 speed figure and won the race at odds of 21-1. Super Saver is another example. Prior to the Arkansas Derby he ran speed figures of 93,93,85, and 85. When he ran the Arkansas Derby he moved forward and improved with a new speed figure of 98 and finished second. If you used him with a couple long shots, like Line of David, in an Exacta, you were rewarded handsomely. One last example, albeit a little different, Looking at Lucky was sitting on a paired figures pattern after his Breeders Cup Juvenile race and then raced at the Hollywood futurity. While he actually ran a lower speed figure in this race, he still won. Speed figures are an inexact art, but they can give you some clues to as how ready a horse is or isn’t to do his best. I use them cautiously.
F. Running Style: I generally prefer a “closer” running style in this race. “Need to Lead” types have scored just 2 times on a fast track in the last 24 years. With that said, the track may be wet fast or sloppy tomorrow, so a lone speed horse might steal race. It’s a possibility.
Ok, now the fun part. The horses (Jockey, Trainer) (Running Style):
#1 Lookin At Lucky (Garrett Gomez, Bob Baffert) (STALKER) 3-1: No one has more G1 appearances than this guy. He is clearly the standout and the class of the field. L@L is consistent and has been on dirt, albeit Oaklawn dirt. He has the right trainer and a jockey legend in the making (Gomez). He will be the post time favorite. If you get 5/2 on him it will be a gift. No surprise, I don’t like L@L for this race. L@L has had a penchant for getting himself into traffic problems in much smaller fields and it has cost him races. In a 20 horse field, I don’t expect this to improve. Drawing the #1 position does help matters any. (check @brocktalk http://goo.gl/fb/PSxfZ for full explanation). Why does he get himself into traffic problems? I have no idea. Could be the rider or the horse could have issues. Who knows? Given his history and the risk to reward, I have to look to try to beat him. NOTE: L@L is a tremendous competitor, I do expect him to get one of the top 4 placings. So, make sure you use him in your trifectas and superfectas.
#2 Ice Box (Jose Lezcano, Nick Zito) (CLOSER) 10-1: Love the trainer, not really sure about the jockey. He won the Florida Derby against a decent field. A stone cold closer. If there is a big pace duel on the front of the race, he will be coming at the end to pick up pieces. While the track at Gulfstream was rated as fast the day he won the Derby, the track was actually somewhat muddy because it rained earlier that day. So, he is a closer who does well on an off track. If it rains Saturday, he could come rolling and steal it.
#3 Noble's Promise (Willie Martinez, Ken McPeek) (CLOSER) 12-1 This guy is nothing but class as well and L@L’s arch nemesis. They have seen each other three times. In a perfectly run race, these two could be dueling each others eyeballs out down the stretch in a memorable, but super chalky finish. NP’s trainer is an experienced Churchill trainer, he will be ready. NOTE: if you use L@L in your tris and supers, then you also should put this guy in. Horses tend to follow each other.
#4 Super Saver (Calvin Borel, Todd Pletcher) (WIRE) 15-1: SS is coming off a race where he didn’t win, but he improved. Pletcher has yet to win a Derby, but he has Calvin Bo-Rail aboard. Bo-Rail is a Churchill specialist and piloted Mine That Bird to a win in the Derby last year. Its very possible this horse could keep improving. The only real knock against him is he needs seems to need the lead to win. He wont get it here. I like him a lot and he will be part of all my exotic wagers.
#5 Line of David (Rafael Bejarano, John Sadler) (WIRE) 30-1: Nice win in major prep on real dirt. The horse is a SoCal horse who spent a long time breaking its maiden (1st win) and up to Ark Derby was only on synth and turf. Furthermore, he is another need to lead type. Looking elsewhere.
#6 Stately Victor (Alan Garcia, Mike Maker) (CLOSER) 30-1: I really liked his father Ghostzapper. He was probably one of the best horses of the last 10 years. His son however, just seems like a horse who likes the turf and synthetic more than the dirt. In addition, his form is all over the place. I would throw him in on the back end of tris and supers since he seems to close well.
#7 American Lion (David Flores, Eoin Harty) (WIRE/STALK) 30-1: Back in January, AL was one of the hype horses. Then, two bad performances at Santa Anita and the hype died. He did win the Illinois Derby, but some question the quality of this race. I like that he seems comfortable off the pace or on the lead and has been at five different tracks, winning at three of them. His speed figure pattern points to possible improvement. Great sire, Tiznow. He will be part of all my bets and probably a pretty good price.
#8 Dean's Kitten (Robby Albarado, Mike Maker) 50-1: Bottom line with this horse is he is a turf horse. Yes, he did win a key.prep. And yes, he did it off of paired figs, so he is improving. I think the paired figs pointed to an improvement that would have come no matter what the surface. He has experience at Churchill, but it was a poor performance. I cant see him winning, but I may include him in the back end of my exotic bets.
#9 Make Music for Me (Joel Rosario, Alexis Barba) (STALKER) 50-1: Horse really is a mystery. At the surface, he doesn’t look fast and his last performance wasn’t great. He obviously has some potential. He has been entered in a lot of graded races. Maybe the connections have too high expectations for him or maybe they know something we don’t. Maybe with the right scenario, he’ll wake up. This is another one to throw in the back end of your exotics.
#10 Paddy O'Prado (Kent Desormeaux, Dale Romans) (WIRE) 20-1: Horse is bred to run on turf. He has been training well and has a good jockey and experienced Chruchill based trainer. Based on his running style (wire), I really don’t see this horse winning. There are too many other good speed horses for him to get the lead. If you have the money, throw him in back end of tris and supers.
#11 Devil May Care (John Velazquez Todd Pletcher) (WIRE/STALK) 10-1: The only filly in the race. Yes, fillies have been knocking with the boys lately (Rachel Alex etc), but given the history of fillies in the Derby, I think you need a lot higher price to really consider her. I’m going to look elsewhere.
#12 Conveyance Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 12-1 (WIRE): Baffert’s other horse. If he’d beat Endorsement in his last race, he would be undefeated and be amongst the top betting choices. There is a lot to like here. He is the fastest horse in the field. He has been four different tracks and has run to form. That’s a big deal for a three year old. Right now, it looks as though he is a target for L@L to run at. What they call a rabbit. The real negative here is that he is a need to lead type. If it rains and the track is rated “wet fast”, there is a possibility he could get a lead and it could be catch me if you can! He will be very dangerous if he likes the slop!.
#13 Jackson Bend (Mike Smith, Nick Zito) (STALKER) 15-1: Another one with a lot to like! In his 9 races, he has been first or second every time. Right trainer and jockey combination. He is definitely improving, but the question for me is whether he can get the distance? If you like him, then you need to use Awesome Act as well.
#14 Mission Impazible (Rajiv Maragh, Todd Pletcher) (STALKER) 20-1: Won a major prep, but not sure he beat anyone of note. Is going right direction. Not sure he is ready for this level of competition. He is one of four or five Pletcher entries. Coming off two successive speed figure bests: not good. Pass. NOTE: If it rains, he is one to throw into your exotic bets, he has proven he likes the sloppy track and could be dangerous with an off track.
#15 Discreetly Mine (Javier Castellano, Todd Pletcher) (STALKER) 30-1: I think this horse is sitting on a big race. Last four races are pretty close to paired figures. He is also what is called a dual qualifier based on breeding. Don’t worry about understanding, just know it’s a good thing. Despite Pletcher’s abysmnal record in the Derby, he is one my top picks
#16 Awesome Act (Julien Leparoux, Jeremy Noseda) (CLOSER) 10-1: This is the New York wise guy pick. Why? Well, his last race he lost a shoe and was basically choked by Jockey Leparoux. So now the wiseguys think with a decent ride, he should be a contender. I admire their attempt to beat the favorite, but I don’t think just because a horse performed well under bad conditions, it necessarily means a mistake free trip will turn him into a Derby winner. Horse is going to really like the slop, so I’m definitely gonna put him in all my picks. He could win, but I just don’t like him for the price.
#17 Dublin (Terry Thompson, D Wayne Lukas) (CLOSER) 12-1: What I like, he is also a dual qualifier based on pedigree, has the right running style and Derby savvy trainer. What I don’t like, he his worst races have come at Chruchill and I have heard from friends that he doesn’t look good and he may not be 100%. The fact that he hasn’t run well at Churchill is enough for me to throw him out.
#18 Backtalk (Miguel Mena, Tom Amoss) (STALKER) 50-1 : Pros: he has won at Chruchill 2x; he has a crafty trainer. Cons: Poor last race, has been beaten by others in the field 3x, lacks back class. He might be one for the back end of exotics.
#19 Homeboykris (Ramon Dominguez Richard Dutrow, Jr) (STALKER) 50-1: This horse, based on pedigree, is also a dual qualifier. Not much else to like. He is probably too slow and I don’t like his development pattern. I will probably leave him off all tickets and if he beats me , then he beats me. He should be 80-1.
#20 Sidney's Candy (Joe Talamo, John Sadler) (WIRE) 5-1: SC is a nice California horse who is fast, seems to be improving at the right time, three graded races under the belt and has one of the top SoCal trainers. Even with all those positives, to me, this horse is a throw out. He has never been on real dirt and seems to only win when running on the front.
So who do I like?
For the win:
If the track is fast and no rain:
American Lion
Discreetly Mine
Looking at Lucky
If the track is rated “wet fast”:
Conveyance
If the track is sloppy & muddy:
Ice Box
American Lion
