While I purchased my iPad with the goal of using it as an everyday productivity tool, one of my ulterior motives was to see exactly how it could help me with one of my chief hobbies: thoroughbred horse race handicapping.  After playing with the device for a few weeks, it struck me that the killer application should allow a handicapper to:

• Download past performances on the fly to the device from DRF or Equibase
• Mark and notate these past performances just like you do with paper and pen
• Share your handicapping notes socially or at least share via email

So, I started experimenting with various iPad apps such as PDF readers, file storage, and note taking.  The peculiarities of the iPad made this less than a straight forward task, but after lots of groking, I think I have what is a workable and usable solution.  

Before I give you the step by step, “how to”, one caveat: You do not have to do this! If you like paper and pen, stick with it!  No one is forcing you to do anything.  Handicappers tend to be an old fashioned bunch and suspicious of new trends, so if you think this is a waste of time or hogwash, save it.  There are racing enthusiasts out there who would like to leverage technology and this is for them.

If you are still interested, here is how you do it:

What You Will Need:

• iPad (preferably 3G enabled; you won’t always be near a wireless hotspot, especially at tracks)
• Stylus – like any iPad app, you can use your finger, but psychologically, I think using a stylus feels more natural. Your choice.
• 2 Applications from the Apple Applications Store

o   Downloads HD ~$2.99

o   Noterize $2.99 (iAnnotate PDF $9.99 also works, but for reasons I’ll share later is less useful)

• Google Docs Account (optional, but free) you may want to save your PPs in the cloud to review at a later date (for the trip handicappers among us)
• DRF Online Account (basic free, pps either on a subscription or al a carte pricing):  Presumably, most of you already have this.

How to:

1. Download both of the applications from the Apple Applications Store
2. Open Downloads HD: When you open the application, it will look and feel like any browser from your Mac or PC.  Go to the Drf.com site like you normally would and go to the site’s menu bar item called “PPs & Data.” Choose basic PPs.  At this point, you login and purchase the PPs just like you would on your PC.
3. Once you select the track and date, the File Icon (right next to the open book icon) will show a “1” in a red circle. Touch this icon and it will open a pop up window showing you the file(s) you just downloaded.
4. Select the PP file you just downloaded by touching it and you will be prompted with another pop up at the bottom of the screen that asks you “Open in File Manager” or “Cancel.” Choose “Open in File Manager” and you will see the full PDF version of that day’s PPs.
5. In the upper right corner you will see an icon that is a square with an arrow point right.  Touch this icon and it will prompt you with two choices: “Email File” or, “Open In.”  Choose the option to “Open In” and you will be presented with the applications on your iPad that can open this file. In this list should be “Noterize.”  Select “Noterize” by simply touching it.
6. Once you select “Noterize,” the application will immediately open and begin to process the PPs so you can edit them in the application. This can take a minute or so.
7. At this point, you should be in the “Noterize” application and looking at the PPs for the track and day you choose.  Now you are ready to mark, annotate, and do all the things you’d normally do to any paper version of the PPs. 
8. With that said, I’m not going to provide an exhaustive tutorial on how to use “Noterize.”  Its pretty simple and straightforward, but it does take some practice to get used to making notes and writing with the stylus. Play around, you can’t hurt anything.

Now the cool part!  Making handicapping social

 I selected “Noterize” over other applications because it allows you to share your notes and annotations a whole host of ways including Twitter and Facebook.  Its pretty simple:

• Touch the “Menu” button in the upper left hand corner
• This will bring out a pop up box with a thumbnail of the document
• Touch the “Share” button at the bottom right hand corner
• Now select which pages you want to share
• Touch the “Share Selected” button in the lower right hand corner
• You will be given a pop up box asking you where you want to “share to.”  The choices are pretty great! You can pick Email, Google Docs, Facebook, Twitter and other services as well.
• Pick Twitter and login! It will briefly convert the document and give you a box to Tweet in. Write something and then press the Tweet button. Voila! You just shared your handicapping notes through your Twitter account.

There you have it. You can now just take your iPad to the track and get PPs as you need them. 

Two final notes:

1.  Above, I suggested a Google Docs account because when you are done, you may want to store the PPs you mark up and go back and review them. Great for trip handicappers.
2. These apps can work with any PDF file, so there is all kinds of stuff out there like track programs. You can use this for those too

See you at the track!

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This race is pretty straightforward so, I will keep this short & simple.

I believe when a legitimate contender wins the Kentucky Derby, the horse more often than not comes back to run very well in the Preakness. (Running well defined as in the money).Although I didn’t bet Super Saver at the Derby (he was an underlay as far as I was concerned), I thought he was a very good horse who had a chance to improve and he did.  Aside from the weather being better, I don’t see any of the four horses coming from the Kentucky Derby improving enough over the last two weeks to beat him. Nor do I see any of the new shooters as much of a threat.  With that said, I don’t see any reason Super Saver should be off the board and I expect him to win. Super Saver is my top selection.  

Betting Strategy: Super Saver is going to be a short price (much less than his 5/2 morning line).  The best play is to try to take him and match him in an exacta with some long shots. Remember to do two tickets. One with Super Saver in first followed by some long shots and then one with Super Saver in the second slot and a couple of the long price horses on top.

Looking at Lucky:  Yes, he is back.  L@L is a professional racehorse. If for some reason his odds are higher than 5-1, make a substantial wager on him.  I think it’s unlikely he wins, but given his high class and quality, if you see a price like that, you should definitely take it.

Long Shot Alert:  #5 Yawanna Twist – As I’ve mentioned before, I like 3 year olds with paired figures (see my Derby post for explanation).  YT qualifies. He could be sitting on a big race and ready to improve. He has a trainer who has been here before and an excellent pilot in Prado.  I will probably put a substantial wager on him to Win & Place. Remember, the public is likely to give him much less of a chance than he really has.  Do not take any less than 15-1 on this horse.

Trifecta Play:  7,8/ALL/ 7,8  & 7,8/7,8/ALL. $40 bet; It wont pay much, but you can tell all your friends how you hit the trifecta at the Preakness

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It’s a classic dating story. It’s called trading up.  Men and women both do it.  In the case of men, it’s usually for a younger, more physically desirable woman.  For women, it may be a man who is better looking and/or most often wealthier.

The story is cliché, especially here in Los Angeles.  A person arrives on the scene here in L.A. with a significant other from their home town or someone they meet who is in similar circumstances.  They date and things are great. Then, something changes.  The big break finally arrives and all of sudden they are thrown into new circumstances that present opportunities to date people they previously weren’t able to get the time of day from.  Initially, they resist advances from these new desirables, but for many, human nature eventually gets the best of them and they give in and break up with their first mate.  Some sociopathic people make trading up a standard practice as they move up the career and social chain.  Inevitably left behind is the jilted mate saying things like “I thought we had something special” or “I thought they really loved me.”  Luckily for these jilted ex-mates usually a kind friend helps them get closure by explaining to them that the signs were there all along and that he/she was never really that into you.  

Such is the case with Facebook and social games.  From day one, since they met you, Facebook has been seeking to trade up on you.  You’re surprised by this?  You’ve spent so much money with Facebook and brought them so many new friends and engagement?  How or why would they do this to you? 

Well, remember Facebook was already in a serious relationship when they met you:  affiliate advertisers. Oh yea, those losers who were pouring tens of millions of dollars into Facebook’s Social Ads platform.  Yes, the same guys who were showing teeth whitening, weight loss, triangles and dating ads.  When Facebook met you and your deep pockets, they knew they had a chance to trade up and they did.  Two years on, those kinds of ads are all but gone. Affiliates can’t afford to buy traffic in the Social Ads platform thanks to your free spending ways.  Understandably, from your perspective, you thought your games and Facebook were MFEO!

As you have basked in the glow of your relationship and enjoyed low cost customer acquisition and dizzying game statistics, Facebook’s own profile and business cache has been increasing too. For almost a year now, Facebook has been systematically bettering and making itself attractive to even richer, more desirable suitors. These new suitors are the big brands (Coke, P&G, McDonalds). Sorry, but no matter what your venture valuation, how many monthly average users you have or how much money you have raised, the big brands have more!

Facebook wants to be seen in the same light as these big brands. Facebook wants to be a brand only environment. The easiest way to do this is to do business with them.  In this case, unfortunately for you, this means leaving your non-branded farms, quizzes, pets and islands all behind. They no longer want you around.  Having you around is awkward and embarrassing with their new, smarter and richer friends.  In the real world when a person doesn’t want to see you anymore, they delete you from their phone book and don’t take your calls. Analogously, Facebook has decided to make the site as uncomfortable as possible for you by limiting the viral channels that make customer acquisition costs and your whole model work.  The digital version of “Don’t call me, I’ll call you.”

Of course you are going to say, major game houses are just starting to embrace social games as a business model and these changes hurt them too, right?  Well, um no, not really.  The difference between you and game development companies like EA, Sony, Microsoft etc. is that they have titles that are recognized and have brand equity.  Their titles have been made into movies, toys and books and over time have been deemed “brand safe” by the same brand advertisers Facebook is seeking to date.  Because of this, these game developers are not a slave to their revenue per MAU or LTV.  If they can’t cover their customer acquisition costs with virtual goods or offer walls, it doesn’t matter, they have other revenue sources such as licensing or advertising.  Facebook is “a” platform for them, not “the” platform for them. 

Wiping tears, “but, but, but I bring them so much site engagement, wont they miss that?” Sniffle. No, sorry they won’t.  Facebook doesn’t care about engagement so much. Never has. Facebook is developing products that make it fade into the woodwork and become the plumbing of the web.  When was the last time Facebook actually released an innovative feature for users on the site?  A long time.  Facebook only slow follows other social networking sites like Twitter and Foursquare by adopting key features like retweets and check ins after they see there is significant interest from their user base.  Facebook’s big guns on product development are mostly focused on things such as the “like” button or Facebook Credits.  Engagement only matters if you are pursuing a property based strategy that involves selling integrations on your homepage and other high value areas of your site.  Sorry, I know the truth hurts.

Facebook’s first major break up appears to be with Zynga.  It’s a well known industry fact that Zynga spends 10’s of million with Facebook for game distribution.  In the account given by @techcrunch http://tcrn.ch/boE8t5 , Facebook has allegedly threatened to shut off certain games while negotiating with Zynga. Do you really believe Facebook would jeopardize this size of customer if they didn’t already have the adequate demand in the form of brand dollars set to come into the platform?  No! Of course not.  They’ve been meeting and talking with brands for months.  The attraction is mutual. 

What is Facebook doing with Zynga then?  They are trying to milk as much out of the end of the relationship as possible.  With the brands already chomping at the bit to come in to the Facebook platform, this is a no lose scenario for them.  Luckily for Zynga, it has an incredible base of users, great titles and is full of smart people who get it. While there may be some short term pain, Zynga games will move off of Facebook and onto its own destination site and that party will continue on in earnest and might even be better off for it

“But what about me? I’m no Zynga. I don’t have 10’s of millions of DAU. What do I do?” you ask.  It seems you have a couple possible, but not necessarily mutually exclusive possibilities:

1.  Stay on Facebook, but accept much lower growth trajectories because you will have to live off of mainly organic traffic since customer acquisition via Social Ads will be very expensive.  This may be fine for guys developing games from their garage with no overhead, no investors and psyched to make a few $1,000 per day.
2.  Move to other social networks. Here is a novel idea: go to MySpace and its 65M+ uniques.  Yes, MySpace doesn’t have the growth of Facebook, but they want you and will work with you to make your traffic acquisition goals work.  The bigger social games guys are going to have to at least try to make MySpace and other social networks work for them.  The game is over on Facebook.
3.  Hope that Zynga creates a platform that allows third party games.  Zynga platform will have 10’s of millions of users day one. 

Any comforting friend usually gives someone coming off a tough break up this cliché, “Its not all your fault, it just wasn’t meant to be.”  And, the cliché applies here.  Remember, the Facebook applications platform never really wanted you to begin with.  You were convenient and available at the time.  Originally, Facebook thought business and personal productivity apps would be the mainstay of the platform, but you showed up and it was good for both of you.  Who says relationships have to end in anything? 

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Just kidding! LOL

Had you going, right?

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Ahhh. The Derby. Like Chirstmas Day for me.  Last year I did a series of Facebook & Twitter updates relaying my observations of the field.  I thought it might have been a bit annoying, but as it turns out I received a lot of feedback from people who are casual fans saying it was really helpful and they watched my stream throughout the day for updates.  Lately, a lot of friends have been pinging me asking if I was going to do it. The answer is yes, so here goes.

First, a couple caveats.

1)      My approach to handicapping is one that focuses on payouts rather than picking winners. Being right in any particular race isn’t as important to me as what the ROI is on my bankroll at the end of the day.  As a result, I tend to look for ways to beat the favorites and lean towards longer odds horses. So, if being right and showing your friends that you picked the Derby winner is important to your self esteem, my picks aren’t for you. You should take the favorites and collect your 2-1 or whatever the chalk pays.

2)      Another consequence of this approach is I have very little emotional investment or attachment in any of the horses.  For my approach to work, I need to evaluate each horse with respect to the dividend that is being offered on that horse. When I say I don’t like a particular horse, its nothing personal, the horse may be a very good horse, its just that when I compare the horses’ return versus his specific attributes, betting on him today, in this race with its specific circumstances is not attractive to me from a risk reward perspective. A lot of true racing fans find this attitude a little annoying.

With all that said, if I say I don’t like a particular horse that you like or have an attachment for, save the comments calling me crazy or telling me I don’t know what I am talking about. Save it. Its wasted breath. Use the info or don’t.  I’ve done well over the past 20+ years handicapping and Im not asking you to put your money up. If you’re cool with that diatribe, then lets go down the Derby rabbit hole.

The Derby is a one of a kind event in American horseracing.  It’s essentially a race for gawky teenage horses all trying the classic distance for the first time in a 20 horse field for the delight of 150,000 screaming fans.  For most of these horses, they will never see a crowd of this size ever again, nor will they see a field of 20 horses again. Most races in the US only allow up to 12-13 entrants. 

The field size is one of the biggest factors in the Derby because of the traffic issues it creates.  At any point in the race, you could have horses going at varying speeds causing problems for other horses because it affects their preferred running style.  The situation for many of the horses can be exactly like the frustration a driver of high performance sports car feels on a crowded highway when he is sitting behind a minivan going 55 mph and boxed in by an old pickup truck. The expensive sports car is clearly the best car on the road, but it can only go as fast as the traffic situation allows. God forbid, but if the minivan all of sudden decides it doesn’t want to drive anymore, then you have an accident. This is the situation at the Derby in a nutshell. So first principal: post position to some horses is everything. 

I love synthetic tracks generally, but the Derby is run on a traditional dirt surface. So, if you don’t have experience on a dirt surface, the horse is usually a throw out for the win.  This doesn’t mean the horse can’t hit the board.  This generally means I throw out a lot of the California horses when considering potential winners. We just haven’t yet seen a horse with all synthetic experience transfer his form to the Churchill dirt track. Yes, last year Pioneer of the Nile (2^nd) came close. And, yes synthetic tracks have only been in full swing in Cali for about 3-4 years, so it is a small sample. But for now, it seems like a prudent reason for elimination.  I am open to changing my opinion on this when I see a reason to. 

If you take the time to look at the actual past performances and don’t just use tout sheets, you will notice many of the California horses do have at least 1 real dirt experience. For the most part, this experience is at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas.  I’m not sure why all the California horsemen are choosing to ship to Oaklawn to get their horses dirt experience (many potential reasons: similarity of surface to California tracks, schedule, etc), but they are.  Despite the fact that I used to believe that Oaklawn form translated well to Churchill, I’m still going to downgrade the California horses with dirt experience only at Oaklawn.  I don’t have any special knowledge or anything, but I don’t think it’s just coincidence that California horsemen are taking the Oaklawn route. I think there is some aspect of Oaklawn that may be very similar to Santa Anita that makes them want to use it as a testing ground that gives insight to how their horses perform on traditional dirt without taking the outright risk of shipping to Gulfstream or another conventional east coast dirt track where their triple crown hopes could go up in smoke.  

At the end of the day, the Derby is a lot like the NCAA Basketball Tourney. Just get to the dance. You never know. Look at Butler this year.  If you get to the starting gate at the Derby you’ve at least got a non-zero chance to win if something freaky happens and a good shot to pick up a nice check even with a third or fourth place finish.  As a result, many trainers just want to get their horses there in one piece and in the gate.

Other factors I consider when handicapping the Derby:

A.      Grade 1 stakes experience: These are the best races run worldwide. The principal is really simple. Grade 1 horses usually win Grade 1 races!  The more Grade 1 races under the belt the more I generally like the horse. If he has won these races even better.  This pretty much applies to any race I handicap.

B.      Jockey/Trainer prior experience: Guys who have been to the big show tend to be better bets. Of course you have Mine that Bird last year, a first time trainer, but he had an experienced Churchill jockey – Calvin Bo-rail – who was well acquainted with the nuances of running at Churchill Downs.

C.      Prior experience at Churchill: I favor horses that are familiar with the track. If they have won a race here, even better.

D.      Number of Trainer Entries:  Lately, people like Zito and Pletcher have been showing up with 4 and 5 entries. Yes, I know Lukas won when he saddled 5 many years ago, but this is just a personal preference. I believe getting a horse through preps, managing owners and juggling jockeys is a tough thing. I don’t believe attention scales well. So, I tend to discount the trainers with multiple entries because I don’t believe they are capable of managing all of the possibly conflicting priorities of each horse and its owner. I may consider these horses for an in the money appearance.

E.      Speed Figures:  For those of you who know me and have either talked racing with me or actually been to the track with me, you know that I have a heavy disdain for speed figures. I generally think the math behind them is elegant, correct and wrong. There is an exception, when it comes to three year old horses, I think speed figures can be a loose guide, roadmap that give you some indication as to how they are developing and some hint as to whether a horse is sitting on a big race or not.  I only have a loose methodology and most of it is based on judgment and feel I’ve developed playing for two decades. An example speed figure pattern I tend to favor is one I call paired figures. If you look at the last four races of a three year old and you see speed scores of 98,98,85,84, then it usually means the horse is ready to go forward and run a big race. Nothing is 100%, but this pattern can unearth good horses at prices from time to time.  In the current field, if you look at Ice Box, prior to running in the Florida Derby, his last four races yielded speed figures of 86,89,68,and 62. When he ran the Florida Derby he ran 99 speed figure and won the race at odds of 21-1. Super Saver is another example. Prior to the Arkansas Derby he ran speed figures of 93,93,85, and 85. When he ran the Arkansas Derby he moved forward and improved with a new speed figure of 98 and finished second. If you used him with a couple long shots, like Line of David, in an Exacta, you were rewarded handsomely.  One last example, albeit a little different, Looking at Lucky was sitting on a paired figures pattern after his Breeders Cup Juvenile race and then raced at the Hollywood futurity. While he actually ran a lower speed figure in this race, he still won.  Speed figures are an inexact art, but they can give you some clues to as how ready a horse is or isn’t to do his best. I use them cautiously.

F.      Running Style:  I generally prefer a “closer” running style in this race. “Need to Lead” types have scored just 2 times on a fast track in the last 24 years.  With that said, the track may be wet fast or sloppy tomorrow, so a lone speed horse might steal race.  It’s a possibility.

Ok, now the fun part. The horses (Jockey, Trainer) (Running Style):

#1 Lookin At Lucky (Garrett Gomez, Bob Baffert) (STALKER) 3-1:  No one has more G1 appearances than this guy. He is clearly the standout and the class of the field.  L@L is consistent and has been on dirt, albeit Oaklawn dirt. He has the right trainer and a jockey legend in the making (Gomez). He will be the post time favorite.  If you get 5/2 on him it will be a gift.  No surprise, I don’t like L@L for this race. L@L has had a penchant for getting himself into traffic problems in much smaller fields and it has cost him races. In a 20 horse field, I don’t expect this to improve.  Drawing the #1 position does help matters any. (check @brocktalk http://goo.gl/fb/PSxfZ for full explanation). Why does he get himself into traffic problems? I have no idea. Could be the rider or the horse could have issues. Who knows?   Given his history and the risk to reward, I have to look to try to beat him.  NOTE: L@L is a tremendous competitor, I do expect him to get one of the top 4 placings. So, make sure you use him in your trifectas and superfectas.

#2 Ice Box (Jose Lezcano, Nick Zito) (CLOSER) 10-1: Love the trainer, not really sure about the jockey. He won the Florida Derby against a decent field. A stone cold closer. If there is a big pace duel on the front of the race, he will be coming at the end to pick up pieces. While the track at Gulfstream was rated as fast the day he won the Derby, the track was actually somewhat muddy because it rained earlier that day. So, he is a closer who does well on an off track. If it rains Saturday, he could come rolling and steal it.

#3 Noble's Promise (Willie Martinez, Ken McPeek) (CLOSER) 12-1 This guy is nothing but class as well and L@L’s arch nemesis. They have seen each other three times.  In a perfectly run race, these two could be dueling each others eyeballs out down the stretch in a memorable, but super chalky finish. NP’s trainer is an experienced Churchill trainer, he will be ready.  NOTE: if you use L@L in your tris and supers, then you also should put this guy in. Horses tend to follow each other.

#4 Super Saver (Calvin Borel, Todd Pletcher) (WIRE) 15-1: SS is coming off a race where he didn’t win, but he improved.  Pletcher has yet to win a Derby, but he has Calvin Bo-Rail aboard. Bo-Rail is a Churchill specialist and piloted Mine That Bird to a win in the Derby last year. Its very possible this horse could keep improving. The only real knock against him is he needs seems to need the lead to win. He wont get it here.  I like him a lot and he will be part of all my exotic wagers.

#5 Line of David (Rafael Bejarano, John Sadler) (WIRE) 30-1: Nice win in major prep on real dirt. The horse is a SoCal horse who spent a long time breaking its maiden (1^st win) and up to Ark Derby was only on synth and turf.  Furthermore, he is another need to lead type. Looking elsewhere.

#6 Stately Victor (Alan Garcia, Mike Maker)  (CLOSER) 30-1: I really liked his father Ghostzapper. He was probably one of the best horses of the last 10 years.  His son however, just seems like a horse who likes the turf and synthetic more than the dirt. In addition, his form is all over the place. I would throw him in on the back end of tris and supers since he seems to close well.

#7 American Lion (David Flores, Eoin Harty) (WIRE/STALK) 30-1:  Back in January, AL was one of the hype horses. Then, two bad performances at Santa Anita and the hype died. He did win the Illinois Derby, but some question the quality of this race.  I like that he seems comfortable off the pace or on the lead and has been at five different tracks, winning at three of them.  His speed figure pattern points to possible improvement. Great sire, Tiznow.  He will be part of all my bets and probably a pretty good price.

#8 Dean's Kitten (Robby Albarado, Mike Maker) 50-1: Bottom line with this horse is he is a turf horse. Yes, he did win a key.prep. And yes, he did it off of paired figs, so he is improving.  I think the paired figs pointed to an improvement that would have come no matter what the surface. He has experience at Churchill, but it was a poor performance.  I cant see him winning, but I may include him in the back end of my exotic bets.

#9 Make Music for Me (Joel Rosario, Alexis Barba) (STALKER) 50-1: Horse really is a mystery. At the surface, he doesn’t look fast and his last performance wasn’t great. He obviously has some potential. He has been entered in a lot of graded races. Maybe the connections have too high expectations for him or maybe they know something we don’t. Maybe with the right scenario, he’ll wake up.  This is another one to throw in the back end of your exotics.

#10 Paddy O'Prado (Kent Desormeaux, Dale Romans) (WIRE) 20-1:  Horse is bred to run on turf. He has been training well and has a good jockey and experienced Chruchill based trainer.  Based on his running style (wire), I really don’t see this horse winning. There are too many other good speed horses for him to get the lead. If you have the money, throw him in back end of tris and supers.

#11 Devil May Care (John Velazquez Todd Pletcher) (WIRE/STALK) 10-1: The only filly in the race.  Yes, fillies have been knocking with the boys lately (Rachel Alex etc), but given the history of fillies in the Derby, I think you need a lot higher price to really consider her.  I’m going to look elsewhere.

#12 Conveyance Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 12-1 (WIRE):  Baffert’s other horse. If he’d beat Endorsement in his last race, he would be undefeated and be amongst the top betting choices. There is a lot to like here.  He is the fastest horse in the field. He has been four different tracks and has run to form. That’s a big deal for a three year old. Right now, it looks as though he is a target for L@L to run at. What they call a rabbit.  The real negative here is that he is a need to lead type.  If it rains and the track is rated “wet fast”, there is a possibility he could get a lead and it could be catch me if you can! He will be very dangerous if he likes the slop!.

#13 Jackson Bend (Mike Smith, Nick Zito)  (STALKER) 15-1:  Another one with a lot to like!  In his 9 races, he has been first or second every time.  Right trainer and jockey combination. He is definitely improving, but the question for me is whether he can get the distance? If you like him, then you need to use Awesome Act as well.

#14 Mission Impazible (Rajiv Maragh, Todd Pletcher) (STALKER) 20-1: Won a major prep, but not sure he beat anyone of note. Is going right direction. Not sure he is ready for this level of competition.  He is one of four or five Pletcher entries. Coming off two successive speed figure bests: not good.  Pass. NOTE: If it rains, he is one to throw into your exotic bets, he has proven he likes the sloppy track and could be dangerous with an off track.

#15 Discreetly Mine (Javier Castellano, Todd Pletcher) (STALKER) 30-1: I think this horse is sitting on a big race. Last four races are pretty close to paired figures.  He is also what is called a dual qualifier based on breeding. Don’t worry about understanding, just know it’s a good thing. Despite Pletcher’s abysmnal record in the Derby, he is one my top picks

#16 Awesome Act (Julien Leparoux, Jeremy Noseda) (CLOSER) 10-1: This is the New York wise guy pick. Why? Well, his last race he lost a shoe and was basically choked by Jockey Leparoux.  So now the wiseguys think with a decent ride, he should be a contender. I admire their attempt to beat the favorite, but I don’t think just because a horse performed well under bad conditions, it necessarily means a mistake free trip will turn him into a Derby winner.  Horse is going to really like the slop, so I’m definitely gonna put him in all my picks. He could win, but I just don’t like him for the price.

#17 Dublin (Terry Thompson, D Wayne Lukas)  (CLOSER) 12-1: What I like, he is also a dual qualifier based on pedigree, has the right running style and Derby savvy trainer. What I don’t like, he his worst races have come at Chruchill and I have heard from friends that he doesn’t look good and he may not be 100%. The fact that he hasn’t run well at Churchill is enough for me to throw him out.

#18 Backtalk (Miguel Mena, Tom Amoss) (STALKER) 50-1 : Pros: he has won at Chruchill 2x; he has a crafty trainer. Cons: Poor last race, has been beaten by others in the field 3x, lacks back class.  He might be one for the back end of exotics.

#19 Homeboykris (Ramon Dominguez Richard Dutrow, Jr) (STALKER) 50-1: This horse, based on pedigree, is also a dual qualifier.  Not much else to like. He is probably too slow and I don’t like his development pattern. I will probably leave him off all tickets and if he beats me , then he beats me. He should be 80-1.

#20 Sidney's Candy (Joe Talamo, John Sadler) (WIRE) 5-1: SC is a nice California horse who is fast, seems to be improving at the right time, three graded races under the belt and has one of the top SoCal trainers.  Even with all those positives, to me, this horse is a throw out. He has never been on real dirt and seems to only win when running on the front.

So who do I like?

For the win:

If the track is fast and no rain:

American Lion

Discreetly Mine

Looking at Lucky

If the track is rated “wet fast”:

Conveyance

If the track is sloppy & muddy:

Ice Box

American Lion

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By now, it’s well documented (http://tcrn.ch/9xTwux) that NBC’s coverage of the Vancouver Olympics took an absolute beating on Twitter, across social networking and around the office water cooler.  While everyone has voiced frustration and annoyance with NBC’s coverage, the issue begs the question why?.

For decades now, the networks who broadcast the Olympics (summer or winter) have had a simple formula:

1. Take story worthy American athletes and make their stories the face and story of each of the events.  This creates appeal for Olympic events that are outside the norm of American viewing habits. This is almost every non-team Olympic event.  How much bobsledding do you think you will watch between now and 2014? Ok, maybe a little biathlon.
2.  Take advantage of location time zone differences to repackage the games and its events with tape delay around the chosen athletes to put each event into a nice, neat prime time package that has a feeling of immediacy and real time.

This was the only way broadcasting the Olympics could work. Put yourself in the shoes of a Fortune 100 brand advertiser. Would you be willing to pay a premium price for an hour of curling, while another advertiser pays the same rate and gets an hour of a compelling story like Apolo Ohno? Not likely. Nor, would you be willing to pay, in advance a premium ad rate if no one at the network could tell you what events and content your product would be identified.  Things were good for Olympic broadcast networks. This formula worked for a very long time.  Until, of course now.

If this worked for decades, then what went wrong for NBC in 2010? 

First, thanks to the internet, we live a in a long tail world.  The age of content scarcity is over.  Consumers now live a world of Hulu, multi 100s of satellite channels and Apple iTunes.  They can basically search or download almost anything they want instantly. Consumers don’t accept being told you will get 15 minutes or curling, then 15 minutes of downhill and then 15 minutes of speed skating. They expect to watch as much as they want for as long as they want and find on their own, the stories they are interested in.  Strangely, just like they do on the web.  NBC’s coverage model is not geared for this.

Second, increasingly we live in a real time, always on world driven by the internet, smart phones etc. People now want to know things instantaneously.  Tape delay doesn’t cut it, unless, it’s a consumers own Tivo tape delay.  

In the past, no one in America was particularly fussy about seeing tape delayed coverage of games in faraway places like Nagano or Torino.  There might have been some fussiness about the Salt Lake coverage, but being 6 months after 9/11 and close to the invasion of Afghanistan, people’s minds were understandably elsewhere.

Since the Vancouver Olympics were going to be available live in most of the US time zones, the natural viewer expectation was to watch events live or semi real time.  Once again, this doesn’t work for NBC’s coverage model. When your ad sales force is geared to sell artificially scarce time slots to high end brand advertisers, how are they going to sell 20+ hours of Curling? They can’t. This is how they’ve always done it. Changing the direction of a large organization like this is like turning a super tanker.  It takes time.

Third, NBC overpaid for the Broadcast rights in 2002 ($820 million) and this essentially put a financial gun to the head of programming execs.  At such a steep price, the network was forced to optimize Olympic content to maximize advertising rates and opportunities.  Much like a website that plasters display ads all over the page has a poor user experience, NBC’s coverage left viewers with a poor experience and feeling exploited by relentless commercial breaks.

Of course you are going to ask: surely, some of the execs at NBC know this right?  The next natural question is:  couldn’t they have course corrected?  The answer to the former is yes and the later, no. They probably know these things, but there isn’t much they can do about it. This is because advertising for events like the Olympics isn’t sold real time. Rates, schedules, time etc are all figured out months and months in advance and contractually once signed, NBC is obligated to deliver what it has promised to the advertiser.

In the final analysis, NBC’s situation with the Olympics is not unlike the situation many Newspapers find themselves.  Readers still want to read the news. It is one of the most popular content categories on the internet, but readers want to interact with news content in a way and time they choose and this isn’t consistent with the business model of news organizations.  Somebody has to change and I don’t think its going to be the readers. 

NBC’s problem is similar in that interest and enthusiasm amongst US TV viewers is high for the Olympics, but these viewers are no longer willing to accept the old model of pre packaging Olympic content for maximizing ad dollars.  This means some ugly realities for the IOC and its broadcast partners. For the IOC, they may not be able to get ever increasing TV rights revenue from the US market. (http://bit.ly/dpA5NS ) For NBC or whichever network does the Olympics, it means a wholesale reengineering of how they present the Olympics and how they earn revenue from it.  Good luck networks. You’ll need it.

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A few years back, the ending of the HBO hit series, The Sopranos, was met with derision and criticism for its ambiguous ending.  More specifically, the public wanted to know exactly what happens to fan favorite mobster Tony Soprano.  While I admit I was jarred by its abruptness, after thinking about it, it made total sense. You didn’t need an ending because you already knew how it ended for Tony Soprano.  Based on the way Tony lived, it is a pretty safe assumption he dies at some point, some horrific way. That is the only way out of the life he was leading. So, whether it happened at the restaurant or anywhere else, it didn’t matter. It ended in death.  Nothing the director Chase could have done would have satisfied the public. Even if they shot, dismembered and burned Tony, nothing would be enough to satisfy the public’s voyeuristic fascination with the life and death of a made man.  Chase recognized this and just closed the window on the narrative.

What has Tony Soprano got to do with Tiger Woods? Well it’s the same voyeuristic fascination in our society that’s driving the calls for Tiger to explain, apologize and “face the music.”  Except, in this instance, these voyeuristic needs are driven by the conflicted position sex and sexuality holds in our society. The cacophony of social commentators and sports journalists calling for Tiger to say he is sorry is not really driven by true moral indignation, but instead by the same “ooh that’s dirty, but tell me more” attitude adolescents have when they hear a dirty joke or some lurid tale about a classmate.  On one hand, it’s completely naughty and forbidden, but they are desperate to know as much as they can. The real agenda behind the calls for a Tiger Woods apology isn't to get closure, rather it is to get as many more juicy details as possible without looking like there is true interest. 

Just as David Chase, knowing full well he would be derided, had the courage to turn the other cheek and not give into the most base desires of our society, Tiger should do the same and stay silent.  Hypothetically, let’s just say that Tiger has decided to come clean. How much detail and explanation is enough?  Admit to two, twenty, two hundred or two thousand girls? Admit to banging strippers and cocktail waitresses two and three at a time? Give specific sexual positions and techniques used?  What level of detail would be enough? We already know the answer. No amount would satisfy. So, why engage at all? The damage to his marriage and professional persona are already done and irreversible.  What does forgiveness by John Q. Public look and feel like? Does it feel the same as the forgiveness of his wife?  How does an explanation change the life of average Joe golf fan? It doesn't one bit. The moral proctors in our society calling for this explanation or apology know this, but its their hypocrisy that is the real driver here. They just want to know a dirty secret.

Just like the tale of Tony Soprano, we already know how it ends for Tiger. The stories, text messages and whatever else can’t be taken back. Sometimes things just end without explanation and abruptly. This is one of those things that should just end.

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Many of you horseracing folks who follow me on Twitter probably caught my tirade on the choice to run the Apple Blossom Race on April 9^th.  I’m not going to rehash the short sightedness of this choice.  My feelings about this subject are only rooted in an agenda of loving this sport and wanting to see it prosper.  

After my initial blasts, Ed DeRosa (@EJXD2) of Thoroughbred Times was quick to point out that this was the only date that made sense for Oaklawn and this setup would provide two big days of racing rather than one.  According to Ed, having a second big day and the potentially large on-track handle was in best interests of Oaklawn. Ok, got it.  

I will confess that I do not know all of the ins and outs or nuances of track economics, but I do know a couple things intuitively:

1. There is no possible way horseracing as a sport is better off having a race of this potential magnitude at a time when people really aren’t inclined to watch.
2. If Oaklawn is better off by doing it on a Friday, but the industry as a whole could do much better by having it on a Saturday, it seems to me there is an opportunity for a deal to make the pie bigger.

Who has to gain here?  Well, namely the ADWs, simulcast outlets and ESPN.  I am sure Youbet.com has a pretty firm analytical understanding of their customer betting patterns, life time value  of their customers and acquisition costs. Not so sure the simulcast outlets are as sophisticated, but the economics are probably similar.  ESPN certainly knows the value of different sports content. So, this begs the question why NTRA and/or the Breeders Cup Ltd can’t get involved as a mediator and facilitator between at least of a couple of these parties and negotiate an agreement that compensates Oaklawn for what they think they’ll lose, but allows for the upside of having a larger, more engaged Saturday audience in a period of time that is basically a sports vacuum? March madness will be over. No football. Baseball is just starting.

The math is pretty simple. Figure out the upside for the outlets and ADWs for a Satruday vs. a Friday card, and then figure out the incremental value of the additional ad revenue based on a better time slot for ESPN.  These parties would then compensate Oaklawn for their loss. 

Before everyone howls and screams, these deals are done all the time in business.  This is nothing new.  Well, maybe to the horseracing industry. There are so many ways to mix and match to make the overall pie available to everyone bigger.   Second, not everyone has to come to the table. If the NTRA or Breederscup could just get a few of large players like Youbet, whoever or whatever is running NYRA, maybe a track or two and ESPN, these entities would be big enough to have gains of the magnitude to do the offset to make the situation optimal.  Just remember, we are not talking about billions of dollars here. In fact, I’d be surprised if we were even talking about $10’s of millions. Probably it’s a couple million.  By no means an insurmountable obstacle.

Finally, NTRA is powerless?  Maybe so from an official standpoint, but power is often earned rather than given or usurped.  I can’t even begin to count the instances I’ve seen of people who were anointed as ”in charge” , but couldn’t get a thing done.  Conversely, I’ve seen 100s of instances where individuals through credibility and earned respect were able to exercise influence and get things done far beyond their organizational station.  So, NTRA/Breeders Cup, not having a piece of paper, badge or whatever saying you are in charge or have a mandate to promote the sport is no excuse.  You are full of credible horse racing people who love the sport. So, go to it! Seize this opportunity. Who knows when or if the next one will come?  NTRA/Breederscup has an opportunity to insert itself and collaborate and educate the parties involved so there is a better outcome for everyone. Not just one park in Hot Springs, Ar.

OUT!

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Recently, I was playing some online poker on what will be an unnamed social network and I had the pleasure of watching in my chat window as a 30 year man awkwardly tries to smooth in on an 18 year old girl. There really is no punch line, the whole thread is just kind of entertaining and awkward in a Woody Allen/Seinfield pointless sort of way.  The best part is the random dude Rohan commenting at the guy Scott.

So here is the unedited chat transcript:

Scott: hi there shylee

Shylee: hi

Scott: how are you doing today

Shylee: im ok how about u

Scott: good, so far

Shylee: good

Scott: are you married

Shylee: no lol im only 18 haha

Rohan: hitting on people via facebook poker chat = worst possible thing ever

Shylee: lol

Scott: not hittim=ng on anyone, just conversating

Shylee: i go on myspace one and have met some nice people

Scott: sounds cool.

Shylee: yea i guess lol

Scott: have you met anyone nice

Shylee: yes my ex 

Scott: sorry to hear that

Shylee: its k he was really nice tho 

Scott: maybe since i'm not hitting on you, we could become friends

Rohan: smooth

Scott: hahahahahahaha

Shylee: lol how old r u?

Scott: i'm in my early 30's

Shylee: lol ummm i like older guys but i dont date old then 26 srry

Scott: no dates ,just friends

Rohan: how many 18 year old friends do you have, scott?

Shylee: lol

Shylee: at lest hes talking lol

Scott: i have alot of friends. conversation never hurt anyone

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Ok, so Tiger screwed up. Gatorade just dropped him and I’m sure other advertisers are contemplating doing the same thing given the raging wild fire and their public opinion driven, lemming leanings.  So how does he save his career and his fortune?

First, he and his handlers need to remind themselves the sport of Golf and more specifically, the PGA are nothing without him. With no Tiger, golf as a sport goes back to the ranks of the fetish sports like horse racing and boxing. I’ll bet boxing would sure like to have back Mike Tyson circa 1990? Horse racing is desperate for a Triple Crown winner.  Long gone are the days of Secretariat.

I know the hardcore golf fans reading this will howl and say “Bullshit, he’s not even the best golfer in the world right now.”  May or may not be a true statement, but it doesn’t matter. He is the face of golf and on any given day, at any given tee, he is capable of doing something eye popping and wondrous. Why do you think the NFL is so popular? Because it has a number of athletes like Tiger who do the extraordinary daily: Brady, Moss and  Adrian Peterson to name a few. People tune in to see the extraordinary. Touchdowns, sacks, home runs and break away goals.  No cares about some random player using exactly the right club to hit the exactly right angle to avoid some sand trap at the TPC.

Tiger has also helped ignite interest from a broad, diverse set of people who previously would have never paid attention to golf at all. Millions of new fans to the sport.  He is the reason for the Nike Tour. He is the reason a player today ranked #100 can make a $1M per year, rather than the $200K that player made 10-15 years ago. If that is not enough evidence, ask a casual sports fan to name the top 5 golfers today.  After Mickelson and Singh, it gets tough. None of these guys stoke the imagination. They are golf technicians, not magicians.

Next, fight back against the sponsors. Tell the PGA Tiger will not play in any tournaments that accept sponsorship from sponsors, like Gatorade, that drop him.  Why Gatorade thinks Tiger’s marital infidelities and his representation of their product would factor into my decision to quench my thirst is really beyond me. I’m just thirsty and electrolytes sound good right about now. Gatorade doesn’t need Tiger that much, but the PGA needs both Gatorade and Tiger.  I’ll bet something could be worked out.

Third, start the whisper campaign that Tiger may just call it quits to pursue a quiet life, perhaps try to save his marriage and get away from a traitor public who cheered him up the ranks and turned on him for private transgressions. The mere threat of this could be enough to sober up the PGA, Nike and whoever else  has a vested interest  in the Tiger gravy train that there is nothing compelling in golf after Tiger. Up to now, Tiger has been alone in his own (self made) public relations hell. Other than dropping him, his sponsors have kept their mouths shut and let him twist in the wind. Time to make Tiger’s problem everyone’s problem. These companies have immense impact and influence on the media.

Finally, if the mere threat to retire doesn’t work, then actually retire. Give a sincere, heart felt apology and tell everyone, you have had enough and you are done.  Hit everyone where it hurts. We’ll see how long the Nike tour goes on without Tiger. Maybe 2-3 years or until the contract is up, but that’s it. Let the PGA see their TV ratings go down. Ever try to get a new TV agreement with declining numbers,?  Don’t believe me? Ask the Breeders Cup how hard it is to promote a championship without a major star. Very difficult.  With his time off, Tiger could reconnect with his wife and kids or choose to hang on his boat and chase girls, either way, it wont be long before people beg him to come back. 

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via google.com

It seems as though Christmas is getting less popular. Check out the world search volumes since 2004. Yes, volumes were up in 2009 vs. 2008, but there were also much more news volume about the holiday. The increase in search volume was not commensurate with the increase in news volume. I guess people are tuning Christmas out.

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I’m an unabashed fan of Bit.ly and the guys at Betworks . For me, Bit.ly makes Twitter useful. Without it, I’m not sure I would use Twitter nearly as much.  Like anything though, Bit.ly has some room for improvement. Here are the features I’d most like to see from my favorite web app:

5. Bookmarking for your shortened links – if you post a of lot links, your history fills up pretty fast. Sometimes you shorten links for an email or to display permanently on a website etc.  If you want to go back in time and see how many people have clicked, you have to thumb through page after page of your past links. It would be nice to have bookmarks, so you could go back to a key link quickly.

4. Hourly click graphs – su.pr and few others do this. Looking at the performance of your links over the course of a day is interesting in terms of understanding your audience and knowing when to post items for maximum reach and engagement.

3. Deeper geo location data for clicks – It’s great to know what countries I’m getting my traffic from, but the data is more of a tease than anything.  For instance, I tend to get a large proportion of my clicks from Russia. Why? I don’t know anyone there.  I post mainly US related information.  Where the hell are all these Russian clicks coming from?  Knowing the specific location doesn’t answer all my questions about this issue, but it’s a start.

2. Ability to download click data for analysis – If you are a data junkie like me, then this is probably the most vexing missing item from the Bit.ly product. For you techies out there, there is probably already some way to get to this data through an api, but for the rest of us technically challenged folk, we need something easy.  So, how about a way to download a CSV file for any date range? Please include make all the data fields available. It would be interesting to see things like clicks versus the different meta tag categories.

1. More detail on “who” is clicking – The Betaworks guys are pretty smart, so there may be some nuanced privacy issues preventing this. None the less, it would be great to have more detail on who exactly is clicking on my links. I realize this is probably a non-trivial technical project, but I’ve seen other link shorteners like twitclicks.com include at least a guess as to who is clicking. Whether you are using Twitter for marketing or professional purposes, knowing who clicked is going to get you one step closer to that next sell, next deal or next professional opportunity. Even if none of this is on the roadmap, how about a detail breakout of stats in the Email Clients, IM, AIR Apps, and Direct category of referring sites

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